Football predictions · Soccer betting tips
Soccer betting tips, read from the table.
Where two teams sit in the league tells you more than any headline. We split every table into four and counted what happened when each quarter met each other — at kick-off, not at the end of the season.
Table position vs result
1,528 MATCHES| HOME ↓ | Top | Upper mid | Lower mid | Bottom |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top | 5283 games | 6694 games | 6383 games | 7194 games |
| Upper mid | 3089 games | 4070 games | 49110 games | 5595 games |
| Lower mid | 31108 games | 3193 games | 3998 games | 42108 games |
| Bottom | 1698 games | 3496 games | 35118 games | 4791 games |
| HOME ↓ | Top | Upper mid | Lower mid | Bottom |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top | 2083 games | 1394 games | 1483 games | 2094 games |
| Upper mid | 2089 games | 2770 games | 29110 games | 2895 games |
| Lower mid | 23108 games | 3193 games | 3598 games | 31108 games |
| Bottom | 2898 games | 3096 games | 31118 games | 2491 games |
| HOME ↓ | Top | Upper mid | Lower mid | Bottom |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top | 2883 games | 2194 games | 2383 games | 994 games |
| Upper mid | 4989 games | 3370 games | 22110 games | 1795 games |
| Lower mid | 45108 games | 3893 games | 2798 games | 27108 games |
| Bottom | 5698 games | 3596 games | 34118 games | 2991 games |
| HOME ↓ | Top | Upper mid | Lower mid | Bottom |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top | 6783 games | 6194 games | 5783 games | 6494 games |
| Upper mid | 5589 games | 5170 games | 48110 games | 6395 games |
| Lower mid | 62108 games | 4493 games | 4198 games | 56108 games |
| Bottom | 4998 games | 4796 games | 49118 games | 4591 games |
| HOME ↓ | Top | Upper mid | Lower mid | Bottom |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top | 6183 games | 5694 games | 5183 games | 5694 games |
| Upper mid | 5389 games | 5370 games | 54110 games | 5995 games |
| Lower mid | 59108 games | 5593 games | 4998 games | 62108 games |
| Bottom | 5298 games | 5196 games | 55118 games | 4591 games |
Top vs bottom
The table matters — most at the extremes.
The four numbers that sum up the matrix above: what happens when the top meets the bottom, and where draws are most common.
TOP at home to BOTTOM
71%home wins — the most predictable fixture in football.
BOTTOM at home to TOP
16%home wins — home advantage is not enough to close the gap.
BOTTOM beat TOP
13%of meetings, home and away combined — the real upset rate.
Most draws
35%Lower mid at home to lower mid — evenly matched sides.
Far apart in the table · 574 games
- Draw24%
- Over 2.557%
- BTTS55%
- Goals per game2.86
Close in the table · 954 games
- Draw27%
- Over 2.552%
- BTTS54%
- Goals per game2.72
"Far apart" = teams two or more quarters apart. "Close" = same or neighbouring quarter.
Guide · Using the table
How to read the table before you bet.
Check the gap
Two quarters or more between the sides? The favourite's chance jumps. Same quarter? Treat it as close to a coin flip with a lean to the home side.
Respect the draw
Draws happen in about one match in four whatever the gap — slightly more when the sides are close. In tight fixtures, the draw or double chance is often the smarter angle.
Don't trust early tables
Before five games, positions are mostly luck. Lean on last season's level and squad strength instead.
Goals come from style
The table barely moves BTTS and Over/Under. For goal markets, use each side's scoring and conceding rates.
VIP Gold Member · Match day
The VIP table, read in full.
VIP selections combine table position, form and line-ups, with late team news reviewed before kick-off.
#1 in Football on Patreon — monthly tiers
Table talk · FAQ
The table, explained.
Every figure on this page is counted from real results in the top five European leagues, using the table as it stood before each match.
How much does league position matter for a prediction?
A lot, when the gap is big. In 1,528 recent top-five-league matches, a top-quarter side at home to a bottom-quarter side won 71% of the time. Reverse the venues and the bottom side at home won only 16%. When the two teams sit close together, the table tells you much less.
How often do bottom teams beat top teams?
Bottom-quarter teams beat top-quarter teams in 13% of their meetings, home and away combined. Upsets happen, but not often — and usually with a clear reason such as rotation, injuries or a big game midweek.
When are draws most likely?
Slightly more often when the teams are evenly matched: 27% of meetings between sides close in the table ended level, against 24% when they were far apart. The highest draw rate on the matrix is 35% — lower mid at home to lower mid. The draw is never as rare as it looks.
Does the table help with goal markets like BTTS and Over 2.5?
Only a little. Meetings between teams far apart in the table produced 2.86 goals a game, against 2.72 when teams were close. For goal markets, each side's scoring and conceding rate matters more than position.
How early in the season can I trust the table?
Give it about five matches. Before that, a lucky win or two can put any team anywhere. The figures on this page only count matches where both teams had already played at least five league games.
Does the away team's position matter as much as the home team's?
Almost. A top-quarter side playing away at a bottom-quarter side won 56% of the time, against 71% when the same fixture was played at the top side's ground. Home advantage narrows the gap, but it rarely closes it.